When does 5 trillion spy skill upgrade make sense?

by Keinutnai Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:07 pm

Here is the answer:

If you buy the upgrade for 4,945,219,029,383 kuwal (if you are kyora), and if UU prices are 375,000
Then the upgrade pays off after you lost 65,412,950 spies. (but only if you cannot raise your UP or use it to raise income.)

Calculation:
spy skill goes up from 7200 to 8800
+22.22222%

This means that you will need to send 18.03279% less spies than usual.

4,945,219,029,383 = 11,774,331 spies (UU + training cost)

This means that the research makes sense as soon as you lost 11,774,331 less spies than you should thanks to your new spy skill.

11,774,331 / 18.03279 * 100 = 65,412,950

This will happen after you lost a total of 65,412,950 spies.

PS: This is only true if it was not possible to use kuwal to raise up or buy and train farmers. The longer it takes for you to lose this number of units, the more spies you have to lose in reality for the technology to make sense. If you used the 5 trillion to buy farmers instead, your income would increase at 50% AE, by 15.8 billion per day. This kuwal alone is worth 37,619 spies. So if you plan on losing less than 13,730,935 spies a year, and you can bank all your kuwal, then using the 5 trillion as an investment on farmers will allow you to replace 13,730,935 spies each year from the income of the investment alone.

by Special Agent 47 Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:14 pm

Unless you actually use the spy skill. That seems to be the part you have never been able to understand. If having that spy skill keeps you from getting farmed due to no one being able to see you then you have to add that to the profit margin. If you sabotage and having that skill increases your effectiveness then you have to add that increase to the profit margin. If you get sabotaged and it cost your enemy more then it would had that too has to be added to the profit margin. So all in all your reasoning and logic posted above is only good for a passive player, and meaningless to someone who actually uses the skill after purchase.

JMO

by Keinutnai Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:32 pm

Special Agent 47 wrote:Unless you actually use the spy skill. That seems to be the part you have never been able to understand. If having that spy skill keeps you from getting farmed due to no one being able to see you then you have to add that to the profit margin. If you sabotage and having that skill increases your effectiveness then you have to add that increase to the profit margin. If you get sabotaged and it cost your enemy more then it would had that too has to be added to the profit margin. So all in all your reasoning and logic posted above is only good for a passive player, and meaningless to someone who actually uses the skill after purchase.

JMO

Not getting farmed is a good point, but I don't think it's worth it, and here is why:

To hide your kuwal even with the 5 trill tech you need millions of spies, and these spies need big numbers of assassins and defenders anyway otherwise they are vulnerable. The defenders you need to protect them alone are pretty much enough to prevent getting farmed.

Defending with defense seems cheaper and more efficient than using 5 trill research and millions of spies.

Another point is that medium sized players can never hide from big players, even the 5 trill research will not hide them. So this option can only be used by the biggest players. 80-90% of players cannot even consider this option.

About sabotage:
The profit margin is already included in the number of spies you lose. You still have to send the same action to destroy something, you simply send X less spies. And that is your "profit margin" If I sab someone and he loses say 3 times more than me, then you then he would still lose it even without my 5 trillion tech. The only difference is that I would lose 22% more spies without the tech.

Why does losing 65,000,000 spies sound to you like the stats of a passive player? Passive players don't lose much spies, only active players who sab a lot lose a lot of spies. Active players sab, Passive players get massed. If you get massed, then your technology wont help you much, because you can be massed easily. The tech will only help you, because you would have trained 18% less spies in the first place. That's all. But when you are a passive player you can lose maybe 2-4 million spies if you are a big player per war. You will never reach the 65 million. But if you are active sabber, you could lose 5-15 million in a war.

Fivel is for example a very active sabber of the Mujengan, but to have 65 million spy losses it will definitely take him at least 2 or 3 years. In the meantime, my 5 trillion kuwal covers the additional 22% spies due to weaker tech (ie. I will train and lose 22% more spies), but in the 3 years my 5 trillion kuwal will tripple and generate enough resources for me to buy and train 40,9 million spies.

And getting 40.9 million spies is as good as saving 40.9 million spies thanks to 5 trillion research, which will happen after the guy loses 227 million spies.

So, if guy A keeps the 5 trillion kuwal lying around, and guy B gets the 5 trillion research then after both of them lost 65,412,950 spies, guy B will be at an advantage.
But if B plays against an active player C who invests his 5 trillion, then both guys must lose 227,000,000 spies within 3 years to be break even. If they lose less, then guy C will be at an advantage.

Of course if you are a member of the strongest alliance, saved up the kuwal already, then you can simply say to yourself that you don't care about efficiency and do the research anyway, just to have the strongest spies/be the best.

by mental Fri Sep 21, 2012 3:00 pm

You take this too seriously, I play for fun and if I want an upgrade I legitimise it without putting much thought into it, ie "I WANT THAT ONE!"

If I ever found myself putting this much thought/effort into a game, I'd know I need to go and have a lie down.

by Gamniac Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:11 pm

numbers, numbers, numberzzz...

All I care about is if I can afford them at the time.

by Keinutnai Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:43 pm

mental wrote:You take this too seriously, I play for fun and if I want an upgrade I legitimise it without putting much thought into it, ie "I WANT THAT ONE!"

If I ever found myself putting this much thought/effort into a game, I'd know I need to go and have a lie down.

What's effort for you, is relaxing for me.
I do these calculations for fun.

Someone might watch some tv, or read a book, I'll do some number crunching instead.

by Lord Ishurue Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:05 am

if i had 5 tril id get the 8800 spy skill.

by Keinutnai Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:36 pm

Lord Ishurue wrote:if i had 5 tril id get the 8800 spy skill.

If I was rank 1, I'd get it too.

by Special Agent 47 Mon Sep 24, 2012 4:18 pm

Keinutnai wrote:
Special Agent 47 wrote:Unless you actually use the spy skill. That seems to be the part you have never been able to understand. If having that spy skill keeps you from getting farmed due to no one being able to see you then you have to add that to the profit margin. If you sabotage and having that skill increases your effectiveness then you have to add that increase to the profit margin. If you get sabotaged and it cost your enemy more then it would had that too has to be added to the profit margin. So all in all your reasoning and logic posted above is only good for a passive player, and meaningless to someone who actually uses the skill after purchase.

JMO

Not getting farmed is a good point, but I don't think it's worth it, and here is why:

To hide your kuwal even with the 5 trill tech you need millions of spies, and these spies need big numbers of assassins and defenders anyway otherwise they are vulnerable. The defenders you need to protect them alone are pretty much enough to prevent getting farmed.
Well it is all opinion. I do not disagree with what you are saying here, I just feel you do not give enough value. Remeber here in AW a strike much smaller then your defense can take your funds. When dealing with massive incomes, and opponents with massive strike techs, then certain things changes values.

Defending with defense seems cheaper and more efficient than using 5 trill research and millions of spies.
Do you still feel that way after taking into consideration the upkeep of weapons? Also with spies being the hardest and most expensive to kill, they are generally targeted the least. Where Defensive units require you to have assassins and spies trained as a defensive measure. It is just my opinion but I would rather pay the 5 trill research, and train 5 mill spies, then train 5 mill defensive men, 5 mill spies, 5 mill assassins, and then keep paying the higher weapon upkeep cost.

Another point is that medium sized players can never hide from big players, even the 5 trill research will not hide them. So this option can only be used by the biggest players. 80-90% of players cannot even consider this option.
In terms of size I fully agree with you here. I still contend it is an option for those with set ups like the core of Mujengan. Those who sell off to stay small. This allows them to not worry about being farmed, and offers them an even large income that stems from selling their UU. Having these higher levels make them far more deadly and effecient which is a necessity when taking into consideration the small overall size they keep.

About sabotage:
The profit margin is already included in the number of spies you lose. You still have to send the same action to destroy something, you simply send X less spies. And that is your "profit margin" If I sab someone and he loses say 3 times more than me, then you then he would still lose it even without my 5 trillion tech. The only difference is that I would lose 22% more spies without the tech.
Yes, that was my point.

Why does losing 65,000,000 spies sound to you like the stats of a passive player?Huh?
Passive players don't lose much spies, only active players who sab a lot lose a lot of spies.I have to disagree with you here. Passive players who get massed and their spies killed loss just as many or more then active sabbers.
Active players sab, Passive players get massed. If you get massed, then your technology wont help you much, because you can be massed easily. The tech will only help you, because you would have trained 18% less spies in the first place. That's all. But when you are a passive player you can lose maybe 2-4 million spies if you are a big player per war. You will never reach the 65 million. But if you are active sabber, you could lose 5-15 million in a war.This is true, but only if you follow a set path and stay passive. If you are passive but choose to actually play and therefore become active then you fall under the active catagory. Some people turtle and accept beating after beating. Some people rebuild and start giving beatings of their own. Therefore it all depends on your play style as to which is more effective. I agree that for the average account under average conditions it does not make a lot of sense. Just pointing out there are case where it does make sense.

Fivel is for example a very active sabber of the Mujengan, but to have 65 million spy losses it will definitely take him at least 2 or 3 years. In the meantime, my 5 trillion kuwal covers the additional 22% spies due to weaker tech (ie. I will train and lose 22% more spies), but in the 3 years my 5 trillion kuwal will tripple and generate enough resources for me to buy and train 40,9 million spies.
So he gets to use his investment now, you have to wait 3 years? If you 2 fight for those same 3 years with you losing an additional 22% the entire time then how much profit has your decision made you? I also still contend that many people make investments not based on effiecency but an actual desire to play the game. Some could make investments that yielded more profit over time, but would much rather accept smaller profit, and even no profit if it allows them to actively play the game, not passively log in, bank, and train.

And getting 40.9 million spies is as good as saving 40.9 million spies thanks to 5 trillion research, which will happen after the guy loses 227 million spies.
Very true, as long as you look at no extinuating circumstances.

So, if guy A keeps the 5 trillion kuwal lying around, and guy B gets the 5 trillion research then after both of them lost 65,412,950 spies, guy B will be at an advantage.
But if B plays against an active player C who invests his 5 trillion, then both guys must lose 227,000,000 spies within 3 years to be break even. If they lose less, then guy C will be at an advantage.
well of course, Now stop using very, very specific senerios that are unrealist to try to prove an opinion.

Of course if you are a member of the strongest alliance, saved up the kuwal already, then you can simply say to yourself that you don't care about efficiency and do the research anyway, just to have the strongest spies/be the best.
Or you can have more men then you need, and more money then your bank can hold, and since your techs are on par with the average account you go for a big ticket purchase since you can buy techs little as you go. These types of statements can go round and round all day. On average yes the level is inefficent, but there are cases where it is no less a bad investment then other investments, and you can never put a value of active play and spending time in the game doing stuff.

by Lord Ishurue Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:12 pm

Kenzu a simple way of looking at this is a combo of analytical & intuitive insight, rational & irrational insight combined. a silly way is it a tomatoe or tomato.

I myself plan on pumping my training facilities to well over 50k ( currently Training Facility (34,771) ) . 8800 spy skill 444% techs. move my bonus points to max covert rest in believe it or not income.

it would prolly be most logical to do what your saying in the thread, to invest that kuwal into training more UUs into spies & assassins and invest the rest into farmers/eco.

Not enough funds to continue with operation (49,509,913,600,000) to go from 300% tech to 444% .

if memory serves me correct level 14 spy is 11k prolly cost 20 tril ish ? i remember back in day i figured it out.

it really comes down to the player behind the account, and how they play the game. if it comes to an alliance war, based on how they play the game what propaganda tactic will they use to show their side is winning etc.

by Keinutnai Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:34 pm

Lord Ishurue wrote:
Kenzu a simple way of looking at this is a combo of analytical & intuitive insight, rational & irrational insight combined. a silly way is it a tomatoe or tomato.

I myself plan on pumping my training facilities to well over 50k ( currently Training Facility (34,771) ) . 8800 spy skill 444% techs. move my bonus points to max covert rest in believe it or not income.

it would prolly be most logical to do what your saying in the thread, to invest that kuwal into training more UUs into spies & assassins and invest the rest into farmers/eco.

Not enough funds to continue with operation (49,509,913,600,000) to go from 300% tech to 444% .

if memory serves me correct level 14 spy is 11k prolly cost 20 tril ish ? i remember back in day i figured it out.

it really comes down to the player behind the account, and how they play the game. if it comes to an alliance war, based on how they play the game what propaganda tactic will they use to show their side is winning etc.

I am not saying that people will not do it. I know that some people will do what they want to do, such as researching the 5 trillion tech even though it's less effective than something else.

I am not trying to convince people not to do it.
I am trying to make people understand that it is ineffective.

@SA47
We both know that people will still research it, but the point I am trying to make is that it is less effective.

It seems to me like you think that researching the technology is more effective for some players. What I was trying to tell you, is that it was absolutely not effective to a single player on Aderan Wars. Not a single one! They would have to lose millions of spies in a short period of time, so short that no one has ever lost that many spies, thus the technology didn't pay off to anyone (yet). One day, maybe in a couple years, it might make sense to research it.

I would like you to understand that researching this technology is less efficient than using the money on pumping a higher UP, or getting more farmers + paying the 22% higher losses.

by Special Agent 47 Tue Sep 25, 2012 5:23 am

Lord Ishurue wrote:
if memory serves me correct level 14 spy is 11k prolly cost 20 tril ish ? i remember back in day i figured it out.

35.3 trill

@ Kenzu,,,,
It is more effective for some accounts then others. I'm not going to argue the point with you but if you can not see how having an AE of 30%, a top 3 UP, and getting a 22% better kill ratio is not benificial then thats fine, we can agree to disagree.

by Keinutnai Sun Oct 07, 2012 1:12 pm

Special Agent 47 wrote:
Lord Ishurue wrote:
if memory serves me correct level 14 spy is 11k prolly cost 20 tril ish ? i remember back in day i figured it out.

35.3 trill

@ Kenzu,,,,
It is more effective for some accounts then others. I'm not going to argue the point with you but if you can not see how having an AE of 30%, a top 3 UP, and getting a 22% better kill ratio is not benificial then thats fine, we can agree to disagree.

Yes, for people who use sabbing a lot, it will be more effective than for people who use it less. (But it will be still less effective in both cases than getting farmers)

However what I am saying is that the additional income you get from investing 5 trillion into farmers outweighs the benefits of the spy skill, even at 30% AE!

by Special Agent 47 Sun Oct 07, 2012 6:30 pm

And I maintain actually playing a game over just logging in 1 time a day is more "fun". That and having fun outweighs efficency any day of the week when playing a game. Again, lets just agree to disagree.

by Lord Ishurue Sun Oct 07, 2012 10:19 pm

im only 45 mil ish army i just got the 8800 spy.

not sure if i should go for 10,600 for 30.94 tril or pump cov tech to 417%

300 to 417 is 30.6 tril for 117% increase

Total Power = Base value x (Basic Tech Boost + Custom Tech Boost + Personal Stat Bonus)

8800 X 5.17= 45,496 spy power

10600 X 4 = 42,400 spy power

pumping techs to 417% is only 7% stronger. plus with my army just using bank and brokers is kinda pain in but.

so prolly best to go with 10,600. since Current Level: 300%
Upgrade Cost: 128,643,200,000

128.7 bil is doesn't take a lot of bank space.

by kingkongfan1 Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:30 am

Lord Ishurue wrote:im only 45 mil ish army i just got the 8800 spy.

not sure if i should go for 10,600 for 30.94 tril or pump cov tech to 417%

300 to 417 is 30.6 tril for 117% increase

Total Power = Base value x (Basic Tech Boost + Custom Tech Boost + Personal Stat Bonus)

8800 X 5.17= 45,496 spy power

10600 X 4 = 42,400 spy power

pumping techs to 417% is only 7% stronger. plus with my army just using bank and brokers is kinda pain in but.

so prolly best to go with 10,600. since Current Level: 300%
Upgrade Cost: 128,643,200,000

128.7 bil is doesn't take a lot of bank space.

not sure that I fully understand what you are saying as for me to get the 10,600 upgrade will cost 35,304,907,694,575 Kuwal. that is a huge difference from 128,643,200,000. must have something to do with the race differences I'll guess.

by Nomad Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:13 am

kingkongfan1 wrote:
Lord Ishurue wrote:im only 45 mil ish army i just got the 8800 spy.

not sure if i should go for 10,600 for 30.94 tril or pump cov tech to 417%

300 to 417 is 30.6 tril for 117% increase

Total Power = Base value x (Basic Tech Boost + Custom Tech Boost + Personal Stat Bonus)

8800 X 5.17= 45,496 spy power

10600 X 4 = 42,400 spy power

pumping techs to 417% is only 7% stronger. plus with my army just using bank and brokers is kinda pain in but.

so prolly best to go with 10,600. since Current Level: 300%
Upgrade Cost: 128,643,200,000

128.7 bil is doesn't take a lot of bank space.

not sure that I fully understand what you are saying as for me to get the 10,600 upgrade will cost 35,304,907,694,575 Kuwal. that is a huge difference from 128,643,200,000. must have something to do with the race differences I'll guess.

The tech is little over 30 trill for him, the 128 bill is the difference in price between the level and the techs,,, or that's how it looks to me.

by Lord Ishurue Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:03 pm

@ Kong & nomad

i mainly think me saving 31tril for 10.6k spy is better then pumping techs since 10.6k spy will be extremely tough unless im ~200mil Army.

so if i wanted it here and now. id go with saving the 31 tril rather then pumping techs to 417%.

since say if it took me 2 months to save 31tril, bam i get the upgrade.

so from there on putting 130bil here and there into slowly boosting my techs to 417% is a lot easier.

by Kenzu Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:01 am

Lord Ishurue wrote:
@ Kong & nomad

i mainly think me saving 31tril for 10.6k spy is better then pumping techs since 10.6k spy will be extremely tough unless im ~200mil Army.

so if i wanted it here and now. id go with saving the 31 tril rather then pumping techs to 417%.

since say if it took me 2 months to save 31tril, bam i get the upgrade.

so from there on putting 130bil here and there into slowly boosting my techs to 417% is a lot easier.

Check out reset.
Researching any tech of any cost will not limit you by your banksize. You will be able to invest in a tech any amount of kuwal gradually, and keep pumping money into it until it's all paid.

by Special Agent 47 Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:17 am

Another blow to anyone who went for growth. Hope Martin still intends to give a refund for all those wasted MR. Seems soon it will be best to start selling off UU since they will have lost the bulk of their usefulness.

by Keinutnai Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:39 pm

Bank still remains vital as a war chest.

by austin5650 Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:56 am

Keinutnai wrote:
mental wrote:You take this too seriously, I play for fun and if I want an upgrade I legitimise it without putting much thought into it, ie "I WANT THAT ONE!"

If I ever found myself putting this much thought/effort into a game, I'd know I need to go and have a lie down.

What's effort for you, is relaxing for me.
I do these calculations for fun.

Someone might watch some tv, or read a book, I'll do some number crunching instead.

That's very true, it can be a fun part of the game play depending on how you look at it, but hey ...we all have opinions Smile

by austin5650 Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:57 am

Keinutnai wrote:Bank still remains vital as a war chest.

and with this banking how long does it take one to increase their bank size into the trillions? ?

by Lord Ishurue Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:31 pm

was mainly saying since saving 31 tril will take a long time. rather just do that then invest 100bil ish here and there on techs etc . at least till 10,600 been bought.

by fivel Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:41 pm

what about the next spy upgrade? When does the next spy skill upgrade make sense?

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