UK General Elections

Hey guys.

The UK general elections are rapidly approaching - who do you want to win? Who do you think will win? Remember that the results of this election won't general influence the UK - but will have effects on other institutions & Nations.

I.e. if the Liberal Democrats manage to get involved in government (such as in the event of a hung-parliament) this may have a significant effect on the UK's relationship with the USA - partitucarly in regard to Afghanistan and future deployments of military forces. The Liberal Democrats are the most likely of the main parties to refuse to send more troops, and to put more pressure in pulling them out of the area.

If the Conservates get in, it could stall & divide the entire European Union, with their likely being far more aggressive than previous governments in oppossing a number of projects, and in trying to get power's handed back to the UK (employment law, protecting London from E.U influence etc...). Its also certain existing set-up's i.e. the farming subsidies for French Farmers - will come under presure from a conservative led UK to reform/ end... which will cause divides between nations (UK & France *will* fall out over that). Will the conservatives policy towards cutting the budget work? Or will it cause a double-dip recission (keeping in mind over 4million workers are directly connected to the public sector, so any saving's*will* cost jobs, which means less people to buy consumer goods etc... - hitting businesses)?

If labour gets into power - their policy of Keynesian (government spending to get out of recession) economics will be continued. Is this a bad or a good thing? i.e. public sector jobs being mainly safeguarded, hopefully stopping a double dip recession - but at the same time if the budget deficit will continue to spiral out of control, potentially meaning the UK will loose its triple AAA loan status (allowing the UK govenernment to take out low-interest loans). If we loose our triple AAA loan status, interest rates on existing loans could jump massively - potentially costing the budget an addittional £15billion+ in interest a year (maybe a lot more - we already pay close to £40billion a year in interest).

If we get a hung-parliament, banking institutionals and financial investors may have concerns that there won't be a strong and unified enough decision made on how to bring the UK's budget deficit down - which may have severe consequences to the value of the £ and investment into the UK. We may also loose our triple AAA status. On the other hand a "national" coalition of the main parties in government will mean decisions taken will have been influenced by all of them - sometimes compromised decisions are bad... but not always.

So... what does everyone think?

Give it back to the monarch

If Labour get back in, they'll think they're 'doing the will of the people' and will subsequently tax every productive member of society into the dirt, then make them dig holes.

If the Conservatives get in, I think they'll get our economy running better than Labour or the Lib Dems could, but this will probably mean cutting down benefits/public sector jobs/etc. This may reduce business, but it'll also reduce the government draw (Since they're performing jobs that do not ultimately make wealth or add wealth to the system for the most part).

Lib Dems may have a chance of getting in, but I agreed with a guy on the radio: They've gotten a sudden boost by playing the 'We're not like these two assholes!' card, but I think its more of a small shake-up strategy by other voters to make the main parties nervous than an actual threat.

I dunno about most of their manifestos, but given the promises of most governments and their absolute failure to deliver, I doubt it really matters.

I consider Labour and Conservative parties very similiar to US Democrats and Republicans.

I think the election system is also similiar.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think you vote for representatives and it's possible that a party with minority votes will be the ruling.

(Just like back then, when Margaret Thatcher was prime minister)
She never won majority of votes, but apparently was allowed to lead anyway.

I don't support the 2 party system currently present in US and UK, and I consider both Conservative and Labor to be right-wing parties. Afterall the shift of Labour to the right in the past decades is apparent.

Nevertheless I would give my vote to Labour.
They seem to be the lesser evil.

Kenzu wrote:I consider Labour and Conservative parties very similiar to US Democrats and Republicans.

I think the election system is also similiar.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think you vote for representatives and it's possible that a party with minority votes will be the ruling.

(Just like back then, when Margaret Thatcher was prime minister)
She never won majority of votes, but apparently was allowed to lead anyway.

I don't support the 2 party system currently present in US and UK, and I consider both Conservative and Labor to be right-wing parties. Afterall the shift of Labour to the right in the past decades is apparent.

Nevertheless I would give my vote to Labour.
They seem to be the lesser evil.

Your right with regard to it being possible for a government with a minority of the vote to have a majority in the house of commons. Labour i think have to get considerably less of the vote compared to their conservative and liberal democrat counter-parts to secure a majority in the house of commons...mainly due to the voting system we have in the UK (first past the post) being in their favour.

As for UK politics being right wing - yes we are getting more right wing. This reflects changes in UK society - with the middle class making up the bulk of the UK population now (think diamond shape - Rich people at the top, well-off/middle class people in the middle, working class at the bottom). Simply put: Left wing policies such as "old labour" wouldn't draw enough support to win - those policies simply no longer appeal to the UK public, hence the change.

Personally i have absolutely zero problem with the UK going right wing - i infact embrace it. In my eyes left-wing and socialist policies do more harm than good - mainly because i place a lot of importance upon people earning their way in life - and in people being allowed to reap the rewards of their efforts. I also believe firmly in minimal government interference (and lots of contracting out to private firms to do what the government has traditionally done), with the exception of the government being actively involved in providing more support for businesses starting out (particuarly manufacturing) as well as research and development of new technology and techniques, which could help ensure a strong economy for the UK in the future - i actually feel in this regard the government has failed badly. I also place a high level of importance upon the UK Military - and the need to keep them well financed.... something left wing governments traditionally have failed to do (though right wing governments also have failed to do so - just not to the same extent).

The simple fact with regard to the UK is that we are the 3rd largest western nation out there in terms of economy and population - after the USA and Germany. With demographics by 2050 there is every possibility we ll be the 2nd largest western nation after the USA - since other nations like Germany, France etc... are facing less population growth and more severe agiing populations (though the UK is facing an agiing population, just to a lesser extent). Other nations such as Japan and even China (their "lovely" one child policy) also face serious issues with regard to agiing populations and shrinking work forces which may impact their economic performance - basically i feel the UK's place in the world is still of huge importance. We still have influence and a leading role to play (and more important a willingness to play it) - and i think that that role should be the continued enforcement of human rights and international law, and the continued support of democratic principles.

How much influence and therefore what role we can play in the future will depend heavily upon our economic performance/ position as well as our military and political influence across the world - all of them inevitably rest upon our economy. The issues being voted upon in this election *will* effect how the government debt is resolved, which in turn will influence future economic performance and have a knock on effect in all probability lasting for several decades.

Its a big issue. UK politics is being fundamentally altered - with non-main parties (i.e. UKIP, Green Peace, SNP, BNP etc...) growing in support, public anger at the expenses scandal, the liberal democrats starting to close on Labour & the Conservatives, increased anti-european Union sentiment by the UK public, issues with devolution and more recently the Northern Ireland peace-agreement, coupled with the Afghanistan war and an increased willingness to end/reduce the special relationship with the USA by the public and politicians in general.... All of it will likely influence the upcoming general election, and may result in a few "suprises" - and this election may significantly alter the UK's stance and position on the world stage, which will influence a lot of other nations.

most things you said are pretty reasonable, however your post has one major flaw in regards to major powers. It is only a matter of time until China will catch up and be ranked 2nd.

I believe there will be a day when China will reach 1st place in GDP and India even though still not as strong economically as China will reach top ranks one day as well.

No matter how strong an economy will grow, a country with 10 times the population of UK will sooner or later have more GDP.

The long term target of one child policy isn't to make all chinese have 1 child, but simply to stop population growth, definitely not to make the population drop.

Currently in rural area families have 2.5 children, only in urban areas (20-30% of total population) families have usually one child. There are some exceptions though. Sometimes have triplets get born for example, and there is also a rule that if both parents are single children themselves, they can have 2 children.

All in all China is catching up and if it remains the largest country by population and its success continues, it will have the highest GDP of all countries within the next 50 years.

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2007/07-05/07.htm/twp-07-05-013.gif

I wonder how the future of UK will shift in regards to their foreing policy and relations to major powers in the future.

lol, Kenzu i agree with you about China.

You missed out a key word though: Western

I said the UK by 2050 will be the 2nd largest Western Nation. Its non-Western Nations - like China - which will make the UK's importance increase, rather than decrease.

When China starts becoming more influential and active on the world stage - the USA and other Western nations will stick together. Coalitions and cooperation will become the priorities. Its in this regard that the UK - being the Western World's 2nd largest nation by 2050 - will become influential.

We are already the leading European Power in terms of military projection and global links (i.e. The Commonwealth of nations). Economically the UK economy has shown itself to be vulnerable in recessions, but strong in times of prosperity. Demographics will impact Europe heavily over the coming year's - but the UK should hold up better than a lot of Europe...

It will hold up better due to immigration as well. Young work force, hungry for a better life, ready to prove and willing to abandon a home for the promise of a better life.

That's the advantage of economically stronger countries. They don't need to rely solely on birth rates.

The economy will be lucky to survive, especially given our so-called potential 'leaders'.

As a country, we have a choice, either we continue to invest massively in the pointless benefits system that seemlying rewards idleness and tax those who actually generate wealth or we can invest in new research, new ways of exploiting resources and new technologies.

I personally believe that as a country, we cannot rely on natural or first-generation industrial resources (Crude oil as natural or assembly line products as first-gen res), I believe we should be focusing on our ability to generate new ideas and new products that others will want to invest or buy in.

But thanks to labour's 'Fair for all', we've gotten massively fucked over, a system that prefers people claim off the government than actually aspire to greater things and the idea that those 'evil' bankers, earning more than most can get in their lives are somehow 'evil' as apposed to merely a product of a fucked up system.